What moves mortgage rates from day to day, explained without forecasts
Why mortgage rates move
Forecast-free answer
Mortgage rates move with the bond market. Lenders price loans off what investors pay for mortgage-backed securities, which tend to track longer-term Treasury yields. Those prices react to inflation and jobs data, Federal Reserve decisions and broader economic news, which is why quotes can change daily or even within a day. No one can reliably predict the next move.
Last reviewed against the primary sources listed below.
ToolMarket calendarScheduled data days in your window.BasicsDaily movesWhy quotes change so often.MarketsTreasuries and MBSThe bond link.PolicyThe FedWhat it does and does not set.DataInflation reportsCPI and PCE.DataJobs dataThe monthly employment report.MediaReading headlinesAverages versus your quote.New guideLender rate sheetsWhere a lender's daily mortgage pricing comes from and why two lenders.New guideIntraday repricingWhy a lender may change its pricing during the day and how that affect.GlossaryKey termsPlain definitions with sources.GuideWhy lenders differThe business reasons two lenders can quote different terms on the same.GuideRate surveysHow published weekly averages are built and why your quote may differ.PrintableLender questionsQuestions to bring to any lender, ready to print.
What this site will not do
It does not publish rates or say whether to lock today. For a neutral view of rate ranges by situation, see the CFPB's Explore interest rates tool.