Rate Weather

What moves mortgage rates from day to day, explained without forecasts

What the Fed does and does not set

Forecast-free answer

The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates. Its Federal Open Market Committee sets a target for a short-term interest rate and decides policy on its securities holdings. Mortgage rates respond to what markets expect the Fed to do over years, so they often move before a decision and can move the opposite way afterward.

Last reviewed against the primary sources listed below.

Scheduled meetings

The FOMC meets eight times a year on a published schedule; see the Fed's meeting calendar. Decision statements are released on the last day of each meeting.

Market questions

When the Fed cuts rates, do mortgage rates go down?

Not necessarily. Markets often price in expected cuts beforehand, and longer-term yields depend on inflation and growth expectations too.

Primary data sources

Next: inflation reports