What moves mortgage rates from day to day, explained without forecasts
Inflation reports
Forecast-free answer
Inflation erodes the value of fixed payments investors receive, so higher-than-expected inflation tends to push yields and mortgage rates up, and lower readings can do the opposite. The two most watched measures are the Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the PCE price index from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Last reviewed against the primary sources listed below.
Where to find release dates
- BLS publishes a release calendar for CPI.
- BEA publishes the PCE price index with its own schedule.
Market questions
Why do mortgage rates go up with inflation?
Investors want higher yields to make up for money losing value over time, and mortgage pricing follows those yields.